Navegando por Autor "Fleischer, David"

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Comportamento do eleitorado brasileiro na eleição presidencial de 1989 : transferência de votos do 1º para o 2º turno : uma análise de dados agregados
(1990) Fleischer, David; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
In 1989, 70 million brazilians voted at the first presidential direct election in the last 29 years. For the first time these electors were called twice: in 11/15/89 and in 12/11/89 for a two-turns election. This analysis of agregated data at county level tries to clear up the enigma of "vote transference from the first to the second turn" in this election. At first sight, the candidate of "Frente Brasil Popular" (Lula), should have won the election in the second turn, for, if we add the votes from the so-called "progressist candidates" (Lula, Brizola, Covas, Freire and Ulisses), Lula would have 49% of the total number of votes (34.5 million). But the opposite happened; Collor ended up with 35 million votes and Lula with 31 million. The analysis considering county size showed that the more conservative candidates (in particular Collor) achieved higher propor-dons of votes where the county population was smaller, as well as in the more peripherical states in the north and northeast of the country. The aggregated data analysis per multiple regression showed that transferences were not total, but that Brizola obtained almost total transference for Lula. In some states one could notice transferings from Lula to Collor and vice-versa, but in smaller proportions.
As eleições municipais no Brasil : uma análise comparativa (1982-2000)
(2002) Fleischer, David
Analisa os resultados do primeiro e segundo turnos da eleição municipal de 2000 no Brasil. Enfoca o desempenho de cada um dos principais partidos e de alguns dos principais candidatos, nas regiões do país e nas principais cidades, analisa o desempenho geral das candidatas mulheres, e procura traçar considerações sobre o impacto dos resultados no cenário político das eleições gerais de 2002.