América do Sul
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/handle/bdtse/9850
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20 resultados
Resultados da Pesquisa
Artigo Tres fases del comportamiento político-partidario en Bolivia : 1956-2020(2022) Vega Yañez, Mario; Tribunal Superior EleitoralEn 1956 se celebran en Bolivia las primeras elecciones que reconocía el derecho a voto a indígenas y mujeres del país. Quince fueron los procesos electorales realizados hasta la fecha, además de dos que fueron realizados, pero terminaron siendo anulados, dejándonos datos que muestran el comportamiento del electorado a través de los años. En esta investigación tratamos de categorizar el comportamiento electoral en tres etapas a raíz de la posición que toma el poder y que marca tendencia en cada una de las épocas.Outro Autoritarismo y comportamiento electoral en Perú : evidencia de elecciones 2011 y 2016(2017) Maldonado, Arturo; Tribunal Superior EleitoralTiene como fin evaluar el comportamiento electoral de los ciudadanos con rasgos autoritarios en el Perú en las elecciones presidenciales de 2011 y de 2016. Se parte de la hipótesis de que los ciudadanos autoritarios votan por candidatos de derecha. El análisis es teórica y metodológicamente distinto para ambas elecciones. En las elecciones de 2011 se utiliza la escala de autoritarismo de ala derecha como factor explicativo del voto por los principales candidatos. Se encuentra que el autoritarismo tiene un efecto directo en el voto hacia Keiko Fujimori y no tiene este efecto para otros candidatos. En las elecciones de 2016 se utiliza una medición diferente de autoritarismo: las actitudes hacia la crianza de los niños. A través de un diseño experimental, donde se induce una amenaza económica y una a la seguridad, se busca evaluar la "activación" de las predisposiciones autoritarias y su efecto en el voto. Se encuentra que la amenaza económica activa el efecto del autoritarismo para Keiko Fujimori y no la activan para otros candidatos. Se discute que las visiones del autoritarismo, aquella que lo ve como un rasgo saliente de los individuos y la otra que lo ve como una predisposición que se activa bajo las amenazas, no son opuestas, sino complementarias. La pregunta para futuras investigaciones es evaluar si el autoritarismo como rasgo saliente es un nivel base y las amenazas amplifican este nivel base a niveles aún mayores. Finalmente, queda abierta la discusión del efecto diferenciado de las amenazas económicas y de las amenazas a la seguridad. En el caso peruano, las amenazas económicas y no las de seguridad activan las predisposiciones autoritarias, a pesar que la seguridad ciudadana ha cobrado relevancia como problema en los últimos años.Outro Voto econômico no Brasil, Argentina e México : análise da percepção econômica dos eleitores, 1995 a 2011(2015) Santos, Tarianna Lustosa; Tribunal Superior EleitoralA decisão do voto é resultante de diversos elementos condicionantes construídos no decorrer da vida do eleitor, como o grupo social a que pertencem, identificação partidária, ideologia, religião, mídia, emoções etc. A economia, também, configura-se como um fator influenciador nas decisões de voto dos eleitores. A influência da economia sobre o comportamento político tem se tornado ao longo das últimas décadas objeto de estudo da Ciência Política. A corrente teórica do voto econômico junta-se as principais teorias clássicas que buscaram explicar o comportamento eleitoral dos indivíduos. Vários estudos sobre o voto econômico foram realizados, sobretudo, nas democracias avançadas. Estudos em países de democracia recente e economia marcada por crises e instabilidade ainda são poucos. Na literatura do voto econômico o que prevalece é que os eleitores tendem a punir/recompensar, através do voto, seus governantes de acordo com o estado da economia. O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar a percepção econômica que os eleitores brasileiros, argentinos e mexicanos têm ao decidir seu voto. Para tanto, serão aplicados métodos estatísticos em dados referentes à intenção de voto e percepção econômica retirados da base de dados Latinobarômetro 1995-2011.Artigo Did brazilians vote for Jair Bolsonaro because they share his most controversial views?(2021) Setzler, Mark; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThe similarity of Jair Bolsonaro's and Donald Trump's divisive views on a variety of controversial issues has led many critics to argue that Brazilians elected a 'Tropical Trump' in 2018. Research on Trump's election shows that authoritarian, racist, and sexist voters were essential to his narrow victory; however, it is an open question whether Trump's pathway to power is the norm or the exception among right-wing nationalists. Even though candidates espousing controversial ideas about democracy and prejudice are gaining much electoral support, it knows little about the extent to which their voters hold similar views. This study confirms that many Brazilians share Bolsonaro's ambivalence about democracy as well as his attitudes denigrating women and sexual minorities; however, the degree of congruence between his supporters' and his own views on these topics played a minor role at most in shaping voter choice. As in previous elections, ideology and partisanship - specifically, attitudes about Brazil's Workers' Party - largely explain whether a voter supported him. This finding largely holds across gender and racial boundaries, although white Brazilians appear to have been modestly more inclined than Afro-Brazilians to vote for Bolsonaro if they shared his divisive views.Artigo From antipetismo to generalized antipartisanship : the impact of rejection of political parties on the 2018 : vote for Bolsonaro(2021) Fuks, Mario; Ribeiro, Ednaldo Aparecido; Borba, Julian; Tribunal Superior EleitoralIt analyzes the effects of antipartisanship in explaining the Bolsonaro vote in the 2018 presidential elections. The expansion of the anti-Workers' Party sentiment known in Portuguese as 'antipetismo' into an antipartisanship that accommodates a wider range of targets and a growing association between antipartisanship and political intolerance provide the context for and underscore the relevance of our tests. The expectation is that the vote for Bolsonaro was strong related to both antipetismo and negative attitudes towards mainstream political parties, especially when such attitudes were intense. The empirical basis of the present work was data from the Barometer of the Americas (LAPOP), particularly from the 2018/2019 wave. Empirical tests indicate that antipartisanship in its varied forms is a relevant phenomenon and had a major role in defining the electoral choices of 2018, particularly in the vote for Bolsonaro.Artigo The victory of Jair Bolsonaro according to the brazilian electoral study of 2018(2020) Amaral, Oswaldo E. do; Tribunal Superior EleitoralIt identifies the determinants of votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the two rounds of the 2018 presidential election from data collected by the Brazilian Electoral Study. By means of multivariate analyses of the two rounds of the presidential election, it found that flourishing 'antipetismo' (i.e. anti-Workers' Party sentiment), growing numbers of voters self-identifying as right wing and increased importance of variables linked to voters' political identification all underpinned the victory of Jair Bolsonaro.Artigo Programs and parties : rethinking electoral competition through analysis of brazilian 'grotões'(2019) Salles, Nara Oliveira; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThe 'salience theory of party competition' moves on from the 'programmatic paradox' imposed by the classic Downsian proximity model and demonstrates that parties compete with each other by means of the emphases they give to certain issues. They do this by leveraging their government programs to shape voter preferences that form an innate component of the electoral process. This phenomenon has been neglected in a Brazil supposedly dominated by weak parties, personality politics and clientelism. This scenario is most pronounced at a local level, particularly in the country's so-called 'grotões' where the electorate is motivated by a desire to meet its basic needs, which has the effect of strengthening client relationships with political candidates. In these areas, the relevance of government programs reaches its nadir. The aim of this article is to investigate this phenomenon in Brazilian municipalities with the lowest Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI) scores. The study is underpinned by two hypotheses: 01. that government programs form an integral component of electoral competition in Brazil and 02. that they are formulated along partisan lines. In order to test these hypotheses, It has performed an analysis of the government programs registered by mayoral candidates running in 2012 and 2016, using the text analysis method that estimates political positions through word frequency (Wordfish). The results fully confirm the first hypothesis but only partly confirm the second.Artigo Between knowing and feeling : emotions and the vote in the 2017 Chilean presidential election(2020) Segovia, Carolina; Gamboa, Ricardo; Tribunal Superior EleitoralHow do citizens decide who to vote for in an election? Traditional answers focus on the role of political knowledge, party identification, and evaluations of the past performance of governments as explanatory variables. In this study it evaluates an alternative argument: the role of emotions. Using data from a survey carried out following the Chilean general elections of December 2017, this article investigates the association of emotions with the vote for Sebastián Piñera, and how emotions interact with other relevant factors that correlate with the vote. It concludes that in Chile, together with party identification and the evaluation of past governments, the emotions aroused by candidates are strongly associated with the voting decision.Artigo Comportamiento electoral en Uruguay : la victoria de Tabaré Vázquez en las elecciones presidenciales de 2014(2016) Vairo, Daniela; Rodríguez, José Raúl; Tribunal Superior EleitoralAnaliza los factores asociados a la victoria de Tabaré Vázquez en la elección de Uruguay 2014. Para ello propone un modelo probit basado en variables explicativas de mediano y corto plazo: la evaluación de la gestión del gobierno saliente presidido por Mujica y la popularidad (simpatía y antipatía) de los candidatos presidenciales Vázquez y Lacalle Pou. Asimismo se analizan los resultados del modelo a la luz de un modelo analítico similar aplicado para el estudio de la victoria de Mujica en 2009. De la comparación surge que existen importantes semejanzas entre ambas elecciones. En un contexto de fuerte estabilidad del sistema de partidos uruguayo y de baja volatilidad, este estudio sugiere que los factores de mediano y corto plazo son relevantes al momento de explicar los resultados electorales, donde el diseño de la oferta electoral y la selección de los candidatos se tornan en un aspecto central.Artigo ¿Por qué la gente vota a la izquierda? Clivajes, ideología y voto retrospectivo en Bolivia y Uruguay en perspectiva comparada(2014) Dosek, Tomás; Tribunal Superior EleitoralExplica as razões do voto dos cidadãos bolivianos e uruguaios, respectivamente, a Evo Morales e José Mujica nas eleições presidenciais de 2009; e, por outro lado, avalia em que medida os determinantes do voto permitem diferenciar as supostas "duas esquerdas" na América Latina. Utilizando dados de pesquisas de opinião pública para os dois casos representativos, o texto mostra como as razões são diferentes, já que no Uruguai pesa relativamente mais a ideologia e os elementos programáticos, enquanto na Bolívia predomina o voto retrospectivo, ambos atravessados por diferentes clivagens estruturais. Após discutir os resultados com a literatura secundária sobre outros casos sul-americanos, argumenta-se que a classificação das duas esquerdas não se sustenta a partir da análise dos determinantes do voto. Metodologicamente, utiliza-se a análise de regressão logística binomial e a comparação de uma série de modelos estatísticos.