América do Sul
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/handle/bdtse/9850
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22 resultados
Resultados da Pesquisa
Outro Os governos progressistas no Cone Sul : semelhanças e diferenças ideológicas(2015) Marques, Teresa Cristina Schneider; Oliveira, Augusto Neftali Corte de; Tribunal Superior EleitoralNos últimos quinze anos, a América Latina passou por uma verdadeira transformação política a partir da eleição de presidentes considerados progressistas. Entre os países nos quais se verifica essa transformação, destacamos os países do Cone Sul que passaram por regimes autoritários ao longo do século XX: Chile, Brasil, Argentina e Uruguai. Este fenômeno eleitoral e as políticas adotadas pelos novos governos reascenderam o debate sobre os limites das mudanças políticas e econômicas compatíveis com a democracia liberal. Uma discussão importante na literatura da Ciência Política procura identificar nestas experiências suas caraterísticas ideológicas e programáticas, em antagonismo a práticas consideradas populistas e clientelistas. A pesquisa contribui com esta discussão a partir da análise de 13 programas de governo dos 4 países da América Latina acima referidos. São identificadas as principais iniciativas de políticas econômicas propostas pelas candidaturas presidenciais, revelando as similitudes e diferenças ideológicas que existem entre elas. Desta forma, a pesquisa revela que existem padrões ideológicos entre os presidentes progressistas da América Latina.Outro Pentecostals, churches and campaign finance in 2014 Brazilian elections(2017) Silva, Fabio Lacerda Martins da; Tribunal Superior EleitoralSince the 1980s, the number of Pentecostal candidates elected for Brazilian legislatures has remarkably grown. Literature has argued that the phenomenon would be related to Pentecostal churches' support. To date, however, this claim was based only in ethnographies or studies relying in a few cases of elected candidates. Drawing from a new data set of Evangelical candidates for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies and state Assemblies, it tries to answer the following questions: do Pentecostal candidates raise less campaign resources than other candidates? What is the effect of being a Pentecostal candidate on vote in Brazilian legislative elections? Is the structure of the church relevant to this effect? Using OLS regression models, I show that there is a positive statistical relationship between being a Pentecostal candidate and campaign spending, between being a Pentecostal and votes, and between the support of more centralized churches and votes.Artigo La reinvención del dinosaurio : entre la nostalgia y el pragmatismo del partido colorado en Paraguay(2014) Cerna Villagra, Sarah Patricia; Solís Delgadillo, Juan Mario; Tribunal Superior EleitoralBusca explicar con base en evidencia empírica comparada las características, el contexto, las reglas y lós resultados del proceso electoral paraguayo del año 2013.Artigo The presence of incumbents electoral competition and reelection in Brazil (1990-2014)(2020) Silva Junior, José Alexandre da; Morais, Leonardo Rodrigues; Paranhos, Ranulfo; Lima, Albany Ferreira; Tribunal Superior EleitoralWhat are the effects of attempts at reelection on electoral competition? It has tested the assumption that attempts at reelection have a positive and significant effect on electoral competition. It measured electoral competition using two indicators: Imbalance index T (Taagepera) and generalized concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirscham (HH)). It analyzed data on the seven last Brazilian national elections (1990-2014). It employed descriptive (variable measures and times series) and inferential statistics (regression analysis with panel data). The main findings: 01. the percentage and the concentration of incumbents has a significant and negative effect on the concentration of votes; 02. the interaction between the percentage of incumbents in a given dispute and in a coalition has a significant and positive effect on the concentration of votes.Artigo Programs and parties : rethinking electoral competition through analysis of brazilian 'grotões'(2019) Salles, Nara Oliveira; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThe 'salience theory of party competition' moves on from the 'programmatic paradox' imposed by the classic Downsian proximity model and demonstrates that parties compete with each other by means of the emphases they give to certain issues. They do this by leveraging their government programs to shape voter preferences that form an innate component of the electoral process. This phenomenon has been neglected in a Brazil supposedly dominated by weak parties, personality politics and clientelism. This scenario is most pronounced at a local level, particularly in the country's so-called 'grotões' where the electorate is motivated by a desire to meet its basic needs, which has the effect of strengthening client relationships with political candidates. In these areas, the relevance of government programs reaches its nadir. The aim of this article is to investigate this phenomenon in Brazilian municipalities with the lowest Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI) scores. The study is underpinned by two hypotheses: 01. that government programs form an integral component of electoral competition in Brazil and 02. that they are formulated along partisan lines. In order to test these hypotheses, It has performed an analysis of the government programs registered by mayoral candidates running in 2012 and 2016, using the text analysis method that estimates political positions through word frequency (Wordfish). The results fully confirm the first hypothesis but only partly confirm the second.Artigo The world cup and presidential popularity in Brazil(2019) Mundim, Pedro Santos; Silva, Gleice Meire Almeida da; Tribunal Superior EleitoralIt analyzes the relationship between public opinion and the World Cup in Brazil with reference to data from quantitative and qualitative opinion polls conducted by the Office of the Secretary of Communication of the Presidency of the Republic. These analyses suggest that an increasingly critical view on the part of citizens as well as frustration with expectations vis-à-vis essential public services such as health and education had a direct impact on Brazilians' views of the event and their (dis)approval of the Federal Government. Amid a series of demonstrations in 2013 and 2014, the World Cup was transformed from a classic case of bread and circuses into a catalyst for popular dissatisfaction. Instead of a popularity boost and a smooth path to re-election in 2014, Brazilian political leaders found themselves scrambling to deal with the legacy of a World Cup own goal.Artigo Race and competitiveness in brazilian elections : evaluating the chances of black and brown candidates through quantile regression analysis of Brazil's 2014 Congressional elections(2019) Machado, Carlos Augusto Mello; Campos, Luiz Augusto; Recch, Filipe; Tribunal Superior EleitoralAlthough the proportion of black, brown and indigenous electoral candidates in Brazil is close to the proportion of blacks, browns and indigenous in the general population, the proportion elected to the country's Federal Congress is significantly lower. Statistical techniques such as linear or logistic regression are typically used to estimate the effect of a particular variable such as color/race or gender on a candidate's electoral performance. However, in Brazilian elections, characterized by substantive, asymmetrical differences such as extreme variations in campaign finance distribution, the efficacy of these types of regression models is limited. Such being the case in Brazil's open list proportional representation system, we propose quantile regression as the most suitable means for estimating the relationship between voting and other variables such as race/color, because it enables us to estimate relationships between the variables of interest across several distribution quantiles. Quantile regression models show that black and brown candidates get as many as 40% fewer votes than white candidates in higher vote distribution quantiles. Furthermore, analysis of access to campaign financing finds that black and brown candidates on average garner only 75% of the funds available to white candidates at quantile 80 of campaign finance distribution. This drops to 65% at quantile 90.Artigo Preparing the terrain : conditioning factors for the regionalization of the vote for federal deputy in São Paulo(2018) Silva, Glauco Peres da; Silotto, Graziele Cristina; Tribunal Superior EleitoralIt proposes a new interpretation of the regional distribution of votes in the dispute for legislative offices in Brazil. The literature has traditionally understood regionalization to be evidence that politicians deliberately create zones of influences in certain areas. It argues, however, that other dimensions of the Brazilian electoral system, notably the large size and magnitude of electoral districts, reinforce the information that reaches voters and adds value to geographic aspects, such as the home city of the candidates, accounting for the spatial concentration of votes. Using new, previously unpublished, data on the hierarchy of cities, the results for São Paulo between 1998 and 2014 confirm this interpretation. This result suggests a new theoretical understanding about how the brazilian political system works by introducing another explanation for how certain areas become influential, thereby revealing new research agendas.Artigo Entries and withdrawals : electoral coordination across different offices and the brazilian party systems(2018) Limongi, Fernando; Vasselai, Fabricio; Tribunal Superior EleitoralArtigo Politics on the web : using Twitter to estimate the ideological positions of brazilian representatives(2017) Souza, Rafael Martins de; Graça, Luís Felipe Guedes da; Silva, Ralph dos Santos; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThe use of social media has become increasingly widespread among citizens and politicians in Brazil. This means of communication served as a key arena for debate and propaganda during the 2014 legislative and presidential elections, when a very polarized political scenario emerged. New approaches have been developed that use information from the social network structure constructed by political actors on social media platforms, such as Twitter, in order to calculate ideal points. Can data from the decision to 'follow' a profile on Twitter be used to estimate politicians' ideological positions? Can approaches like this show the variance of political positions even within a very fragmented legislative body, such as the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies? This article presents and analyzes the successful application of a Bayesian spatial model developed by Barberá (2015), using data from Brazil. This method allowed to capture differences between parties and political actors similar to those found by means of roll call votes. It also makes possible to calculate ideal points for actors who participate in the public debate, but are not professional politicians.
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