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URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/handle/bdtse/10292

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How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil
(2006) Carvalho, Márcio André de
Apresenta uma análise do comportamento dos deputados federais brasileiros na Câmara entre 1995 e 1998, quando várias emendas constitucionais foram apresentadas pelo presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso. O objetivo é mostrar que a falta de uma coalizão governamental (ou bloco governamental) estável resultou em custos para a sociedade que não foram previstos pelo governo. O argumento usado é que o logrolling - troca estratégica de votos - foi a estratégia utilizada pelo governo para garantir o número de votos necessários para aprovar as emendas. Assim, na tentativa de se garantir o número mínimo de votos, o governo criou um sistema no qual os deputados apenas votariam com ele se tivessem algum tipo de retorno em troca dos seus votos.
Reconversión y conservadurismo político en Brasil : los limites del cambio
(2006) Serna, Miguel; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
El artículo aborda los cambios políticos recientes de la democracia y los partidos políticos de Brasil desde una perspectiva histórica comparativa. La hipótesis central es que para explicar la naturaleza y límites de los cambios electorales hay que comprender las dificultades históricas de los procesos de democratización y el peso de una matriz sociopolítica conservadora. En la primera sección se analiza la formación de una matriz sociopolítica conservadora y las debilidades de la democratización entre 1945 y 1964. En la segunda sección se aborda la dinámica de la democracia y los partidos políticos en las últimas dos décadas para identificar los límites de los cambios políticos electorales recientes.
Women and candidate quality in the elections for the Senate : Brazil and the United States in comparative perspective
(2007) Bohn, Simone R.
The Senate remains as an almost uncharted territory for women. And not only in re-democratized countries like Brazil, but also in advanced democracies such as the USA. To date, 33 American and 28 Brazilian women have served in their Senates. Why are these numbers so reduced? This article discusses the key obstacles that women face and, through OLS and probit analyses, examines the degree of competitiveness and rate of success of all candidacies. We show that, even though womens are thought to be weak contestants, they can be as competitive as men when they have a record of elected public positions. The reduced availability of the latter, however, indicates that they are still far from inscreasing their presence in the Senate.
Career choice and legislative reelection : evidence from Brazil and Colombia
(2007) Botero, Felipe; Rennó, Lucio R. (Lucio Remuzat); Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
This paper explores the differences and similarities between the electoral systems in Brazil and Colombia and how it affects Brazilian incumbent Federal Deputies and Colombian Diputados political career choices and electoral success. The main argument is that even though both electoral systems are, in general terms, quite distinct, they appear to produce very similar effects in career choices and reelection. The main cause of the effects found is that the institutional minutiae of the two electoral systems increase their similarities. Key words: Legislative Careers; reelection; electoral systems.
Rethinking state politics : the withering of state dominant machines in Brazil
(2007) Borges, André; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Research on Brazilian Federalism and state politics has focused mainly on the impact of federal arrangements on national systems, whereas comparative analyses of the working of state political institutions and patterns of political competition and decision-making have often beeb neglected. The article contributes to an emerging comparative literature on state politics by developing a typology that systematizes the variation in political competitiveness and the extent of state elites control over the electoral arena across Brazilian states. It relies on factor analysis to create an index of electoral dominance, comprised of a set indicators of party and electoral competitiveness at the state level, which measures state elites capacity to control the state electoral arena over time. Based on this composite index and on available case-study evidence, the article applies relies on the typological classification to assess the recent evolution of state-level poltitical competitiveness. The empirical analysis demonstrates that demonstrates that state politics is becoming more competitive and fragmented, including in those states that have been characterized as bastions of oligarchism and political bossism. In view of these findings, the article argues that the power of state poltitical machines rests on fragile foundations: in Brazils multiparty federalism, vertical competition between the federal and state governments in the provision of social policies works as a constraint on state bosses machine-building strategies. It is concluded that our previous views on state political dynamics are in serious need of re-evaluation.
Relevant factors for the voting decision in the 2002 presidential election : an analysis of the ESEB (Brazilian Electoral Study) data
(2007) Carreirão, Yan de Souza; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
The article investigates some of the most relevant factors for the voting decision in the 2002 presidential election by testing some of the main hypotheses about electoral behaviour in the country by means of logistic regression analyses based on data from the ESEB (Brazilian Electoral Study), a post-electoral survey conducted on a national sample of voters. In the models, taken as a whole, political opinions did not have much weight in the voting decision. Furthermore, they are unable to explain a very large share of voters positioning on a left-right scale or on a scale of voters party sentiments. All these political variables taken as a whole, in turn, explain only part of the evaluations that voters make of the governments performance. The analysis shows that Brazilian voters voting decision seems rather varied, since some variables were shown to be relevant to explain the vote for a candidate, but not for the others. The variables shown to be more frequent (for all four candidates analysed) and with more considerable weight were: voters religion, their party sentiments, their positioning on a left-right scale, the evaluations made of the then current government (in actual fact important only for the vote for Serra, the governments candidate) and the candidates attributes (especially reliability and preparedness/competence).
Brazilian democracy and the power of old theories of party competition
(2008) Santos, Fabiano
Brazilian politics has been usually analyzed as a case full of pathologies by scholars and political journalists alike. Fragmentation, volatility, clientelism and inefficiency have become bywords for describing the performance of Brazils political institutions. As a counter to this view, this work argues that the countrys democracy in the post-1988 period presents enough evidence in favor of classical hypotheses about electoral politics in the contemporary worlds, theories that invariably are based on premises of rationality in the behavior of voters and political parties. These theories include the median voter theorem, Duvergers law on the mechanical and psychological effects of electoral systems, and the model of retrospective voting. The article also contends that the passing of time has contributed to make Brazilian politics more rational and efficient in the mould of older democracies.
From petista way to brazilian way : how the PT changes in the road
(2008) Goldfrank, Benjamin; Wampler, Brian
Quando Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva venceu a disputa presidencial em 2002, ele e seu Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) tiveram a maioria dos observadores convencidos de que esta era uma nova fase para a democracia do país. Afinal o PT tinha construído uma reputação de mais de vinte anos para um bom governo e ética na política. Apesar disso o governo Lula tem sido severamente minado por escândalos de corrupção, que surpreendeu até o mais cínico dos observadores do PT e fomentou amplo descontentamento entre muitos dos antigos defensores do partido. Esse artigo expõe quatro vertentes de explicação para a queda da simpatia do PT, envolvendo: o elevado custo das eleições brasileiras, as decisões estratégicas da facção dominante do partido, restrições econômicas sobre uma eventual administração Lula e sobre as dificuldades do sistema multipartidário.
¿Qué piensa la elite política latinoamericana sobre la actividad de los partidos políticos? Brasil y Guatemala en perspectiva comparada
(2008) Felisbino, Riberti de Almeida; Miranda, Francisco José Lemus; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Los miembros de la elite política comparten con los politólogos que los partidos son instituciones políticas cruciales para el buen funcionamiento de la democracia, pues los partidos son los que mejor desempeñan las principales funciones en el dicho régimen; o sea, estas instituciones constituyen mecanismos de expresión y representación, al mismo tiempo cumplen con las funciones de gobernar. Sin embargo, los miembros de la elite política tienen diferentes opiniones sobre la actividad de los partidos. El objetivo de este artículo es discutir y comparar las opiniones de los miembros de la elite política brasileña y guatemalteca. Trataremos de contestar a algunas cuestiones basado en el estudio "Partidos políticos y gobernabilidad en América Latina".
Reelection incentives and political budget cycle : evidence from Brazil
(2010) Klein, Fabio Alvim
Tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.
Electoral success and political institutionalization in the federal deputy elections in Brazil (1998, 2002 and 2006)
(2010) Bolognesi, Bruno; Perissinotto, Renato M. (Renato Monseff); Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
It identifies the variables with the greatest impact on the chances of electoral success for candidates for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies in the 1998, 2002 and 2006 elections. Based upon data provided by the Supreme Electoral Court, this article firstly analyzes the relations between occupation, gender and level of education, on the one hand, and the electoral results (those elected and not elected), on the other. The article then presents a model of logistic regression in order to measure the real impact of these variables on the candidates chances of electoral success. The same procedure was repeated for the right, center and left-wing parties. We conclude that being a professional politician is the most important variable in determining the electoral success of a Federal Deputy candidate in Brazil, in the elections that were analyzed.
Are voters fiscal conservatives? Evidence from brazilian municipal elections
(2010) Arvate, Paulo; Mendes, Marcos; Rocha, Alexandre; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Intentando derrumbar mitos : partidos y sistemas electorales en Argentina y Brasil
(2010-12) Barrientos, Miguel
Os partidos brasileiros respondem a uma dinâmica regional, operando em determinados espaços do país? Os partidos argentinos se estruturam nacionalmente, ferindo o federalismo e esfumando as realidades provinciais? Até onde isso é verdade? O que acontece hoje nestes federalismos? Partidos, sistemas de partidos, sistemas eleitorais e fenômenos vinculados a estes como a sobre-representação distrital e seu efeito sobre os partidos, etc. em nível federal no Brasil e na Argentina se analisam no presente trabalho. Primeiramente, se faz um estudo dos sistemas eleitorais na esfera federal. Logo, realiza-se uma análise do sistema de partidos na arena nacional e acerca do que dizem as constituições Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil, de 1988 CF88 e a Constitución de la Nación Argentina CN94 sobre estes instrumentos do exercício democrático. Também se faz um estudo do presente dos partidos e a forma de classificá-los. O fenômeno da sobre-representação distrital (SRD), por sua vez, é objeto de uma profunda pesquisa, pela importância que cobra nestas federações. A forma em que as unidades federativas menores encontram-se sobre-representadas coloca um desafio aos estes federalismos, ao estabelecer pautas no jogo político federal.
Brazilian parties according to their manifestos : political identity and programmatic emphases
(2011) Tarouco, Gabriela da Silva
Generally, party programmes are neglected in Brazil owing to their alleged (and assumed) irrelevance. It is argued that given that such documents are designed on order and with propaganda purposes, they could hardly be accepted as depictions of the parties true political positions. However, such an assessment lacks empirical verification. This article tests the hypothesis that Brazilian parties emphasise distinct questions in their manifestos. This hypothesis is based on saliency theory, according to which parties can be distinguished from one another depending on the themes they choose to prioritise. Content analysis technique was applied to the texts, using an adaptation of the categories of the Manifesto Research Group. The results indicate that the programmes do not have the same content, and neither are the differences in their emphases random. It is possible to distinguish between Brazilian parties not only by the kinds of questions they emphasise more, but also by those that they emphasise less.
Campaign spending and poverty levels in Brazil : an exploratory approach
(2011) Figueiredo Filho, Dalson Britto; Santos, Manoel; Silva Júnior, José Alexandre; Rocha, Enivaldo; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Is there campaign spending efficiency higher in poorer states? This paper estimates the effects of campaign spending on Brazilian electoral outcomes by testing the hypothesis that candidate spending efficiency is positive correlated with poverty levels. The model uses individual level data of the 2006 House of Representatives national elections. The preliminary results suggest that: (1) campaign spending exerts a positive effect on votes; (2) Not elected candidates show a pattern of higher marginal returns of each extra dollar spent in their political campaigns compared to elected ones; (3) this pattern is consistent across states and poverty levels; (4) there is no evidence that poverty levels are positive correlated with candidate spending efficiency.
Electoral governance in Brazil
(2012) Marchetti, Vitor
Electoral governance has increasingly more frequently been the object of study of the comparative politics literature. This article examines the electoral governance institutional model adopted in Brazil and its consequences for political/electoral competition. It is argued herein that Brazils Electoral Justice System, motivated by the institutional design, has ended up becoming one of the main actors of the countrys recent democratic consolidation, being decisive not only with regard to rule adjudication and application, but also to rulemaking. With the purpose of assessing this governance model in action, three important recent rulings by Brazils Electoral Justice System are analysed here: verticalization of the coalitions, reduction in the number of councillors, and party loyalty.
Trust and political information : attitudinal change in participants in the Youth Parliament in Brazil
(2012) Fuks, Mario; Casalecchi, Gabriel Avila; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
It analyzes the impact of socializing experiences on the political attitudes of youngsters. More specifically, our goal is to evaluate the impact of the Youth Parliament program on youngsters confidence levels in the Minas Gerais State Assembly (MGSA). The analysis focuses on the cognitive foundations of attitudes and results show a substantial increase in confidence levels in MGSA, an increase associated with the acquisition of information on the institution. It is asserted that the increase in confidence in MGSA represents and attitudinal gain. The study design involves quasi-experimental research on a non-random sample. We conducted two rounds of interviews in 2008, prior and subsequent to the program, with 335 participants (167 in the treatment group; and 168 in the control group).
La construcción de la imagen de Cristina Kirchner y de de Dilma Rousseff en las elecciones presidenciales
(2012) Gómez Castañeda, Eugenia Cecilia; Veiga, Luciana Fernandes
La primera mujer elegida para el cargo de Presidente en América Latina fue Violeta Chamorro en Nicaragua en 1990. Luego vinieron Janet Jagan (Guyana, 1997), Mireya Moscoso (Panamá, 1999), Michelle Bachelet (Chile, 2006), Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Argentina, 2007), Laura Chinchilla (Costa Rica, 2010) y Dilma Rousseff (Brasil, 2010). Estudiar la tendencia creciente de representación de las mujeres en la política es un tema cada vez más importante para la Ciencia Política latinoamericana. Con este texto intentamos un análisis todavía inicial sobre la construcción de la imagen de dos candidatas exitosas en las elecciones presidenciales en América Latina.
Holding parties accountable : the sources and dynamics of mass partisanship in new democracies
(2012) Baker, Andy; Sokhey, Anand E.; Ames, Barry; Rennó, Lucio R. (Lucio Remuzat); Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Campaign finance in comparative perspective : a nested analysis approach
(2012) Figueiredo Filho, Dalson Britto; Melo, Natália Maria Leitão de; Rocha, Enivaldo Carvalho da; Silva Junior, José Alexandre da; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
It analyzes campaign finance in a comparative perspective, giving special attention to Brazil and the Unites States. The focus regards the level of regulation on the sources of campaign contributions. Methodologically, the research design adopts a nested approach, combining descriptive and multivariate statistics with deep case studies and documental analysis. Additionally, we replicate data from the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) to estimate a standardized measure of regulation. The results suggest that most countries show low levels of control over the sources of campaign contributions. However, both Brazil and the United States display high levels of regulation on campaign finance, despite their widely different institutional designs.