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URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://bibliotecadigital.tse.jus.br/handle/bdtse/10292
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Artigo Race and competitiveness in brazilian elections : evaluating the chances of black and brown candidates through quantile regression analysis of Brazil's 2014 Congressional elections(2019) Machado, Carlos Augusto Mello; Campos, Luiz Augusto; Recch, Filipe; Tribunal Superior EleitoralAlthough the proportion of black, brown and indigenous electoral candidates in Brazil is close to the proportion of blacks, browns and indigenous in the general population, the proportion elected to the country's Federal Congress is significantly lower. Statistical techniques such as linear or logistic regression are typically used to estimate the effect of a particular variable such as color/race or gender on a candidate's electoral performance. However, in Brazilian elections, characterized by substantive, asymmetrical differences such as extreme variations in campaign finance distribution, the efficacy of these types of regression models is limited. Such being the case in Brazil's open list proportional representation system, we propose quantile regression as the most suitable means for estimating the relationship between voting and other variables such as race/color, because it enables us to estimate relationships between the variables of interest across several distribution quantiles. Quantile regression models show that black and brown candidates get as many as 40% fewer votes than white candidates in higher vote distribution quantiles. Furthermore, analysis of access to campaign financing finds that black and brown candidates on average garner only 75% of the funds available to white candidates at quantile 80 of campaign finance distribution. This drops to 65% at quantile 90.Artigo Extreme non-viable candidates and quota maneuvering in brazilian legislative elections(2019) Wylie, Kristin; Santos, Pedro dos; Marcelino, Daniel; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThis article explores the causes and consequences of extreme non-viable candidacies, also known as "laranja" (orange) candidacies in the Brazilian political lore. We first define and delineate what makes a candidate a laranja, engaging the comparative literature on sacrificial lambs and using district-level electoral results to operationalize the concept. We then advance a typology of laranjas with four ideal types that vary along dimensions of legality and intentionality. Next, we apply descriptive statistics and a hierarchical logistic regression model to explore the individual, party, and district-level characteristics of extreme non-viable candidates and assess whether and how laranjas are distinct from non-laranjas. Finally, we illustrate the gendered character of laranjas, documenting how the candidate gender quota law in Brazil has been associated with a proliferation of candidatas laranjas (women extreme non-viable candidates).Artigo Representación visual y simbólica de la militancia en las campañas electorales de Cristina F. de Kirchner (2007 y 2011) y Dilma Rousseff (2010 y 2014)(2018) Rocca Rivarola, Dolores; Moscovich, Nicole Marina; Tribunal Superior EleitoralPropõe uma interpretação comparativa sobre o lugar visualmente atribuído nas campanhas eleitorais de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007 e 2011) e Dilma Rousseff (2010 e 2014) à militância pró-governo como um coletivo mobilizado e uma sustentação organizada. Isso, depois de sucessivas campanhas que privilegiaram uma imagem diferente: aquela do candidato em uma ligação direta, e sem mediações, com a cidadania. O levantamento de material empírico consiste em uma seleção de spots na Argentina e de todos os programas eleitorais do HGPE (Horário Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral) no Brasil. A partir da análise de conteúdo qualitativa da propaganda eleitoral, observa-se uma maior hierarquização visual do coletivo militante nas campanhas de 2011 (Argentina) e 2014 (Brasil), em comparação com as duas anteriores (2007 e 2010). E, para o caso brasileiro, o artigo destaca a introdução na campanha de 2014 de um segundo modo de representação da militância, através de referências à trajetória de Dilma como ativista juvenil durante a ditadura militar.Artigo Electoral success and political institutionalization in the federal deputy elections in Brazil (1998, 2002 and 2006)(2010) Bolognesi, Bruno; Perissinotto, Renato M. (Renato Monseff); Tribunal Superior EleitoralIt identifies the variables with the greatest impact on the chances of electoral success for candidates for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies in the 1998, 2002 and 2006 elections. Based upon data provided by the Supreme Electoral Court, this article firstly analyzes the relations between occupation, gender and level of education, on the one hand, and the electoral results (those elected and not elected), on the other. The article then presents a model of logistic regression in order to measure the real impact of these variables on the candidates chances of electoral success. The same procedure was repeated for the right, center and left-wing parties. We conclude that being a professional politician is the most important variable in determining the electoral success of a Federal Deputy candidate in Brazil, in the elections that were analyzed.Artigo Investigating elite behavior through field experiment in Brazil : do candidates answer more to core or swing voters?(2013) Spada, Paolo; Guimarães, Feliciano de Sá; Tribunal Superior EleitoralThis paper explores recent advances in experimental methodology to analyze elite behavior. Using an email experiment conducted in the context of the Brazilian 2008 municipal elections, we studied whether candidates target swing or core voters during campaigns. Candidates from all parties - 1,000 candidates in all - were contacted by randomly generated citizens who identified themselves as either core or swing voters. Additionally, we randomized senders past voting behavior and their gender. To identify the baseline answer rate, we employed a placebo treatment with no reference to the elections. Our results show that Brazilian candidates target any sender as long as she identifies herself as a potential voter. Within this general finding, models with city-specific fixed effects indicate that Brazilian politicians tend to target core voters. The paper contributes to the general experimental literature by providing an easily replicable design that can test the behavior of elite interaction with the public. At the same time, the paper extends the literature on core versus swing voters by providing an empirical test that can shed light on the effects of a specific political environment (type of election, voting rule, and party structure), and how it affects the relationship between candidates and voters during elections.Artigo Debate online y campaña electoral en Brasil : los comentarios de los electores en las webs de candidatos en 2014(2016) Campos-Domingues, Eva; Massuchin, Michele GoulartAnálisis del debate electoral en Internet. Se utiliza un conjunto de variables y categorías para medir, cuantitativamente, cómo se materializa el debate en un espacio específico: las páginas webs de campaña de Dilma Rousseff (PT) y Marina Silva (PSB). El análisis toma en consideración a los 6.406 comentarios registrados en los posts de las dos páginas analizadas a lo largo de los 90 días de la campaña electoral en Brasil en 2014.