Determinants of party and mayor reelection in local governments : an empirical examination for Argentina during 1983-2011

Abstract

It examines the determinants of reelection of parties and mayors in Argentine local elections during the 1983-2011 period. Using a unique and comprehensive database recording local election results for over 1600 local governments, it tests three potential sources of variation: structural factors, polítical/institutional variables and economic variables. It finds that incumbency advantage is strongly and significantly related with a higher probability of reelection. It also finds that localities with high structural poverty tend to have higher probability of reelection. Finally, it finds that local governments with large population and with municipal charters have lower probability of reelection. For robustness, it recasts the electoral data to yield data at the unit of analysis of the electoral cycle. It tests the same variables as determinants of the duration of the cylce. The results are very much in line with the main section.