A decisão de voto do eleitor catarinense (1998-2006)

Abstract

Analisa os fatores que são relevantes na decisão de voto dos eleitores catarinenses. Isso é feito com base em dados de pesquisas eleitorais realizadas entre 1998 e 2006, analisando as possíveis associações entre as intenções de voto dos eleitores catarinenses e um conjunto significativo de variáveis, de natureza socioeconômica (sexo, idade, ocupação, escolaridade, renda, "raça"/cor e religião dos eleitores) e política (preferência partidária e avaliação de desempenho dos governantes), para os cargos de presidente, governador e senador, nas três últimas eleições gerais.

It analyzes the relevant factors for the voter's decision in Santa Catarina. This study is carried out based on electoral surveys applied between 1998 and 2006. It analyzed the possible associations between a significant set of socioeconomic (gender, age, schooling, income, race and religion) and political (party identification and incumbent evaluation) variables and the voter's intention for president, governor and senator in Santa Catarina. The analysis shows that the socioeconomic variables age, occupation, race, schooling, and income are related to the vote, although not always with the same intensity and direction in relation to the two last variables. As regards party identification, although less than half of the voters expose this identification, among them there is a reasonable association between their identification and their vote. Indeed, the most relevant variable was the incumbent evaluation, that is, voters who evaluate well an incumbent tend to vote for the candidate that represents the continuity of this administration; voters who evaluate an incumbent as a bad one tend to vote for the opposition candidates.